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📊 🏖️ When should a high-income earner switch from Roth to Traditional 401k?

From this Reddit thread:

I know this question gets asked ad nauseum here, but the answers are invariably "choose to pay taxes whenever you think your taxes will be lowest".

I wanted to ask this question with some specific numbers, and get some peoples' specific input on how they would be handling this.

I'm currently contributing to a Roth 401k, taking ~15% of my bi-weekly paycheck, where my employer is matching 5 or 6% (we've changed plans several times in the last couple years, and I don't recall the plan details).

I'm employed in CA, paying 9% state and 22-24% federal income tax (marginal rates, not effective).

Personal info: Age: 34 Married, one child (2YO) Individual income: $104k + up to 10% bonus Household income: $210k 401k: $195k across three accounts Averaging 10-14% returns Mostly Vanguard ETFs and Target Date funds $850 bi-weekly ROTH contributions (including match) 529 for daughter's education $18k in CA ScholarShare 529 $500 monthly contributions Other: Wife will have retirement through CalSTRS and 403b Inherited IRA (traditional) with $65k that I received earlier this year My only debt is a mortgage and car note. I expect the mortgage to be satisfied in ~12-14 years. It's only 3.125%, but I value the peace of mind of having it paid off, and make roughly 3 extra principal-only payments annually. As such, I don't anticipate having a mortgage in retirement. I'm trying to fund the 529 early to give it the best opportunity to grow before my daughter is college age, and I will probably taper off contributions eventually.

The question then, I suppose, is at what point do I switch to making traditional contributions? I'm having a hard time gauging whether or not I would be able to live at or below the 12% bracket. Obviously in 30 years that bracket may not even exist, or it may not be livable. Or am I trying to optimize retirement planning to a level that doesn't have a clear answer at my income level?

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1 Answer

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Tough to do better than traditional tbh, for the reasons mentioned in the reddit thread, but try it for yourself: https://finfam.app/mahmoud/views/roth-vs-trad-401k

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